Mobilities and Long Term Location Choices in Belgium - MOBLOC

Institution CEPS / INSTEAD
Partenaire(s) : Gédap Louvain-la-Neuve , GRT Namur (B)
Autres partenaire(s) University of Louvain (B)
Du : 01/01/2007
Au : 31/12/2010
Budget : 110 456,00€
Contact(s) : Gerber Philippe

Summary

Mobility and transport evolve with time and the passing generations. Interactions are numerous between daily mobility and household migration (house moving implying a municipality change). New residential choices induce new mobility behaviours, based on an extensive and probably excessive use of the private car in daily trips (home-work/school, shopping, leisure ...).

The MOBLOC project aims at investigating the cycle linking long-term society evolution, residential choice, transportation demand and the resulting accessibility evolution. Final results consist in interacting models for residential migration and daily accessibility, Belgian population forecasts at municipality’s level and a municipality based origin-destination matrix for work/school, with indication of the modal split for each destination. A fitting car accessibility model and a propensity to move model were designed in the first phase.

The remaining models and their interactions will be proceeded in the second phase. The project scheme is mainly composed by the residential migration models and the accessibility models. Further models are necessary to complete the full scheme. The residential migration model describes the individual behaviour of migration. A migration here is defined as a change of the municipality of residence between two firsts of January.

The span is thus annual and the observed intermunicipal migration. Such a definition is imposed by the available data. This model predicts the municipality of each individual according to both socio-econo-demographic variables and municipal characteristics. It is actually split up into two sub-models: a propensity to move model and a localization model. The first one gives the probability to move for each individual while the subsequent one assigns a new residence municipality for people who migrated. Then, the accessibility models use the aggregate results on a municipality base. There are two independent accessibility models, one for private car and one for public transport.

Their outputs are travel times between each pair of municipalities, by car and by public transport. These allow the computing of municipal accessibility indicators to several opportunities. These indicators are in turn processed in the localization model, thereby modelling the loop and the interaction between the daily and the long term mobility. Additional models are necessary: a gravity model estimates the journey to work flows between each municipality pair, a modal split model estimates the travel demand by car.

Programme:
  • La Science pour un Développement Durable
Foreign Funding Agency:
  • Service Fédéral Public de Programmation Scientifique (Belgium)
Project Website:

Figure: General methodology of the project